Irish economic figures are being inflated by a rush to beat Trump tariffs, the European Commission has warned.
In its Spring Forecast published this morning, the European Commission predicts that the Irish economy will grow by 3.4 percent this year before falling back to 2.5 percent in 2026.
“High uncertainty and deterioration in global trading conditions are expected to detract from growth”, the European Commission warns.
“Exports rebounded strongly in 2024, largely driven by multinationals, with pharmaceutical trade surging and computer services remaining robust. While export growth is expected to continue, momentum is expected to moderate amid the imposition of tariffs and a weak external environment.”
Ireland’s economic figures are complicated by its huge “multinational-dominated sectors” which can mask the real state of the Irish economy.
Across the EU, growth is predicted to remain muted for this year and next.
“The EU economy began 2025 on a somewhat stronger footing than anticipated. It is projected to keep
growing at a modest rate this year, with growth expected to pick up in 2026, despite heightened
global policy uncertainty and trade tensions”, the European Commission says.
The European Economy Commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, said Donald Trump’s “unpredictable and seemingly arbitrary rational behind the US tariff announcements has driven global economic policy uncertainty to levels not seen since [the] darkest moments of [the] Covid-19 pandemic.”
