Emissions from cars and lorries have already breached Ireland’s first carbon budget, that’s according to data from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI).
Ireland’s first carbon budget was agreed three years ago and set legal limits on greenhouse gas emissions up to 2030.
The aim is to cut emissions sector by sector, also bringing Ireland into line with European law.
The EU’s 2030 emissions target is legally binding, requiring a net reduction of at least 55 percent of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels.
SEAI keeps a check on Ireland’s sectoral emissions and it has now concluded that transport emissions have breached carbon budget limits.
“SEAI’s data shows that transport emissions in the first half of 2025 were two percent lower than the same period last year. However, despite this welcome reduction, SEAI’s analysis indicates that Ireland exceeded its transport emission allocation for the first carbon budget earlier this year”, the SEAI says.
“Since September 2025, Ireland’s transport sector has effectively been emitting against its future allocations in the second carbon budget, which is meant to cover the 2026-2030 period.”
The SEAI also predicts that the electricity sector will breach its carbon limit next month.
“Despite a 2.8 percent increase in electricity demand, SEAI’s data shows that Ireland’s electricity sector emissions in the first half of 2025 were largely unchanged from the same period last year.
Increased demand was largely met through greater use of imported electricity via international interconnectors. SEAI’s best estimate is that Ireland’s electricity emission allocation for the first carbon budget could be exceeded sometime in November.”
By contrast, residential emissions are in line with the carbon budget, so long as this winter is not especially cold.
Lower emissions from heating homes has been driven by a combination of warmer weather, higher energy prices and household retrofitting, the SEAI says.
“Taking stock of what’s been achieved and where we have lagged at the end of this first carbon budget should be a decisive moment for both our economy and climate”, says the SEAI’s Director of Research and Policy Insights, Margie McCarthy.
“If we achieve net demand reductions and deploy clean energy faster, then Ireland can build an energy system that’s secure, affordable, and healthier for everyone, and gives us a chance to meet our climate obligations.”
“While Ireland’s energy transition presents short term challenges, its long-term benefits will be enormous. From warmer homes and more energy efficient businesses to a more resilient and future-proof economy. We simply cannot afford not to act. Either as individuals or as a society.”