Ireland looks set to cut greenhouse emissions by just 23 percent by 2030, miles short of the 51 percent cut the state has committed to achieve, and on a worse trajectory than a year ago. That’s the warning from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
“EPA analysis shows that planned climate policies and measures, if fully implemented, could deliver up to 23 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2018, down from the 29 per cent reduction projected last year. This widening gap to the emissions reduction target of 51 per cent in Ireland’s Climate Act is driven by updated information provided by Governmental bodies”, the Environmental Protection Agency warns in its latest report.
Almost all sectors are on a trajectory to exceed their national sectoral emissions ceilings for 2030.
“Transport, Industry and the Buildings (Residential) sectors are projected to be the furthest from their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030, with emission reductions of up to 21 percent, 12 percent and 22 percent respectively. Agriculture emissions are projected to reduce by up to 16 percent.”
“As we get closer to 2030 and receive more information on the impact of agreed policies and measures, it is concerning to see projected reductions and lack of progress in the delivery of actions to reduce emissions”, said the EPA’s Director General, Laura Burke.
Ireland’s target failure is being exacerbated by a lack of progress towards the electrification of our transport sector and the expansion of renewable electricity powering our homes and businesses and the implementation of carbon reduction measures in agriculture, she added.
“Momentum is building for Ireland’s low carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition.”
EPA’s sector by sector projections:
Agriculture
Depending on the level of implementation of measures outlined in Climate Action Plans, AgClimatise and Teagasc MACC, total emissions from the Agriculture sector will range from a 1 per cent increase to a 16 per cent decrease over the period of 2018 to 2030. Savings are projected from a variety of measures including limits on nitrogen fertiliser usage, switching to different fertilisers and bovine feed additives.
Transport
Emissions from the sector are projected to reduce up to 21 per cent over the period 2018 to 2030 if the measures set out in plans and policies are implemented. These include over 640,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030, increased biofuel blend rates and measures to support more sustainable transport. Road freight is projected to be the biggest source of road transport greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
Residential Emissions
Emissions from the sector arise from fuel combustion for domestic space and hot water heating. These are projected to decrease by up to 22 per cent by 2030. Emission reduction measures in this sector include 571,000 domestic heat pumps are projected to be installed by 2030.
Industry
Fuel combustion in manufacturing is the primary source of emissions in this sector; process emissions from mineral, chemical, and metal industries contribute the next largest portion. Emissions from this sector are projected to reduce by 12 per cent over the period 2018 to 2030 with full implementation of measures including the accelerated uptake of carbon-neutral heating technologies for low and high temperature heating, and increased use of biomethane.
Energy
Driven by a reduction in fossil fuel usage and increased net importation of electricity from interconnectors, there was a marked drop of over 21 per cent in emissions from electricity generation between 2022 and 2023. In combination with planned increases in renewable energy generation from wind and solar, energy sector emissions are projected to reduce by up to 68 per cent (over the period 2018 to 2030) and are projected to achieve over 68 per cent renewable electricity generation by 2030.
Land use
Emissions from this sector are projected to increase between 39 per cent to 95 per cent over the period of 2018 to 2030 as our forestry reaches harvesting age and changes from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase.
Across the EU, the European Commission says member states are now significantly closed the gap to achieving the 2030 energy and climate targets”.
If all 27 EU member states “implement fully existing and planned national measures and EU policies”, the European Commission says net greenhouse gas emissions will be cut by around 54 percent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, just shy of the 55 percent target the EU has set.
The European Commission says member states are “demonstrating political resolve to reduce our dependence on imported fossil fuels, improve the resilience and security of energy supplies and infrastructure, accelerate the integration of the internal energy market and support those who need it the most with investments and skills development.”