Ireland is set to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2030, compared to a national target of 51 percent, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has warned.
The EPA’s latest analysis of pollution levels suggests that Ireland is woefully behind a whole string of targets.
“While greenhouse gas emissions are declining, European and national emission reduction targets are projected to be missed,” the EPA’s Director General, Dr Eimear Cotter, said.
“There must be a renewed focus on delivering the actions to meet Ireland’s climate targets which will be a significant challenge given the short timeframe to 2030.”
But the signs are not good.
The government has set set up five-year so-called “carbon budgets” with the first one running from 2021 to 2025. It set the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions that could be released during each period.
The carbon budgets get gradually smaller with the aim of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
The EPA says Ireland came “close” to meeting the ceiling of the equivalent to 295 mega tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions up to 2025.
But for the second budget, running from 2026 to 2030, Ireland is projected to exceed emissions by “a significant margin” of equivalent to between 53 to 82 mega tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Transport, industry and the buildings emissions are the most troublesome sectors, “furthest from achieving their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030”, the EPA says.
Projections by sector
Agriculture emissions are projected to be cut by between 4 percent and 19 percent. The upper end would be a significant reduction, but is far from certain.
Emissions from transport are projected to reduce by up to 28 percent over the period 2018 to 2030, if government plans are fulfilled. That includes “at least 751,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030, increased biofuel blend rates and measures to support more sustainable transport.”
Home heating and hot water systems could cut emissions by 18 percent by 2030. Progress is being undermined by “lower uptake of home energy improvement measures, including planned heat pump installation in existing dwellings.”
Manufacturing emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels, followed by emissions from mineral, chemical and metal industries. Emissions are estimated to fall by 12 percent over the period 2018 to 2030.
Renewable electricity will make up between 52 percent and 59 percent of Ireland’s electricity needs by 2030, the EPA says. Emission cuts are being hampered by problems with the grid. Importing more electricity is contributing to reductions in Ireland’s emissions, but delays to projects like new offshore wind sites is hampering progress.
Emissions from land is expected to increase alarmingly between 4 percent to 72 percent. The EPA says this is due to forests reaching “harvesting age” meaning that trees switch from being a carbon sink to a new source of emissions. Planting new trees, better soil management and peatland rehabilitation will help limit the increase.
Dr Eimear Cotter said it was vital to work as hard as possible to try to meet Ireland’s emission commitments.
“Meeting these targets will deliver multiple benefits. These include reducing Ireland’s reliance on fossil fuels in electricity, transport and heating and strengthening national energy security and resilience.
Achieving these emission reductions will also improve public health, provide green employment and protect our environment.
Overall, these trends demonstrate that progress is achievable but accelerating delivery is critical.”