UK demands for closer post-Brexit relations look set to be predicated on Britain’s willingness to negotiate on fish.
Since the Labour government came to power last July, they have repeatedly talked about a “reset” of relations with the EU.
European Union member states, including the Irish government, were initially broadly positive about the change in direction. But slow progress has caused some disappointment in Brussels.
British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has talked about a closer relationship with a possible deal with the EU on security and defence, on migration and on trade. The Labour party manifesto also promised to pursue a veterinary agreement with the EU which would do away with the need for animal checks at the border.
But so far, none of the items on the wishlist seem to have been developed and there are no negotiations currently underway.
Although also keen on a security and defence agreement, the EU meanwhile also has its own list including a youth mobility scheme to allow EU nationals to live, study and work in the UK, and vice versa.
Irish citizens can already do this because of the Common Travel Area.
But the UK government is not keen on the idea of allowing lots of European students to come to the UK causing a spike in the migration statistics and costing the British taxpayer.
All this means, it is not clear what can be achieved.
But there is one subject which is high on the agenda for Ireland, France and other northern European countries: Fish.
When the Brexit deal was agreed, an interim solution was made on fisheries. It led to a reduction in access to UK waters for Irish and other EU fishermen. But it did not cut off access altogether.
That temporary deal is soon coming up for renewal and France, Ireland and others are now pushing for the current situation to continue.
British fishermen and women, who were told Brexit would allow them to ‘regain our waters’ will not be happy if the UK government is seen to buckle on this.
It is understood that the EU position increasingly looks to be: No deal on fisheries, no deal on defence or anything else.
That line, which was first put forward by France, seems to be gaining traction in the EU.
The EU’s new security and defence blueprint, branded “ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030” presented by the European Commission last month aims to trigger a massive increase in defence funding.
The central aim is to ready Europe to be able to defend itself in case the US does not come to Europe’s aid.
Defence analysts fear that Russia could be militarily ready to invade the European Union within three to five years.
As part of a wider €800 billion package, €150 billion of loans will be open to EU member states as well as Norway, Japan and others to spend on defence.
But the money is not available to the UK.
EU officials have indicated that the UK would first have to sign an EU security and defence deal if it wants British industry to benefit from the Rearm Europe plan.
And a defence deal…depends on a fisheries deal.
Next month, European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, is expected to travel to the UK for the first UK-EU summit.
It could be the launch of negotiations. But both these issues, and likely many more, will need to be on the table.