Donald Trump is set to become President of the United States for a second time. But what will his win mean for Ireland and for the European Union?
Out on the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to impose trade tariffs of 60 percent on China and up to 20 percent on Europe and the rest of the world if he was elected president.
And in his victory speech this morning he was keen to emphasise that everything he said on the road would now be enacted.
“I will govern by a simple motto, promises made, promises kept. We’re going to keep our promises”, he said.
Trade tariffs are a risk to European exports to the US, making it harder for EU companies to compete. And if the EU retaliates with tariffs on US products, it could push up prices for consumers here in Ireland too.
That’s what happened during Trump’s first presidency. After the US President put tariffs on EU steel and alumnium, the EU retaliated with tariffs on make-up, clothes, motorcycles and boats.
It was a multi-billion Euro trade war. And it could happen again.
Donald Trump could also go after Ireland’s tech firms, encouraging them to shift their operations – and their taxes – back to the US.
Last month, Trump claimed that Apple’s boss, Tim Cook, had complained about being force to pay back billions of Euro in state aid to Ireland.
According to the Sunday Times, Taoiseach Simon Harris has been briefed that a second Trump presidency could “significantly impact” Ireland’s windfall corporation tax receipts.
This morning, Simon Harris was keen to congratulate Trump’s victory:
“The people of the United States have spoken and Ireland will work to deepen and strengthen the historic and unbreakable bonds between our people and our nations in the years ahead”, the Taoiseach wrote on X.
It is not just taxes and trade which are worrying EU leaders. Donald Trump’s commitment to Ukraine is unclear. Trump has previous dealings with both Zelenskyy and Putin which makes the relationship complicated.
But during the campaign, Trump promised he could quickly end the war. The Ukrainians wonder on what terms with Russia occupying close to one-fifth of its territory.