Ireland will have to pay out up to €26 billion to offset pollution without drastic improvements, that’s the warning from the Fiscal Council and Climate Change Advisory Council.
Under EU law, Ireland is legally obliged to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The Fiscal Council and Climate Change Advisory Council’s report estimates that Ireland will miss four sets of major targets.
The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) sets binding national climate targets for the emissions of road transport, buildings, agriculture, waste and small industries.
About two thirds of EU member states are either compliant or close to compliant with their targets, but Ireland, along with Poland, France, Germany and Italy, is way off.
At its current rate, the European Commission estimates that Ireland will miss its target by the equivalent of 50 tonnes of CO2 by 2030.
Under the Renewable Energy Directive, all EU member states must source 45 percent of energy from renewables by 2030. Again, Ireland is in the bottom third of member states who all look set to miss that target.
Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation sets binding national limits on emissions from farms, forests and wetland. “Ireland is projected to miss its LULUCF targets”, says the report.
Emissions by 2030 could be as high as double the allowed value.
The Energy Efficiency Directive sets targets on, as the name suggests, improving energy efficiency.
“Ireland is projected to miss its energy efficiency targets”, says the report. Maybe by as much as one-fifth.
Missing the targets for land use, renewable and effort sharing comes at a price.
The Fiscal Council and Climate Change Advisory Council has calculated that to offset the pollution could cost up to €26.4 billion.
It is a vast cost for the state to cover.
A more optimistic calculation – if Ireland gets closer to meeting to some of the targets – puts the total at €8 billion, the equivalent to the state’s entire budget for housing.
More damaging still, is the impact of continuing to pollute on the environment and on climate change.
“Ireland must act now to avoid risking massive costs from missing its climate targets”, concludes the Fiscal Council and Climate Change Advisory Council.
“While we have made some progress in reducing emissions, our pace of change is not enough to meet our national and EU climate targets.
The Government must take clear and decisive action now to transition to a climate neutral economy”, said Marie Donnelly, Chair of the Climate Change Advisory Council.
The report adds that if the government follows through with environmental measures, “costs could be reduced but not eliminated”.
It estimates that, in the best case, the government will still need to fork out between €3.4 billion and €11.9 billion in offsetting costs.
“Ireland is an outlier in terms of the size of costs it faces”, the report warns. Although there are other countries also falling short of their targets, Ireland’s small size and drastic failings make it an extreme case.
The impact will follow through onto the Irish economy which could be knocked back by 0.9 percent of GNI (Gross National Income), the councils warn.
The Fiscal Council and Climate Change Advisory Council say the government could significantly reduce that impact by pumping more money into environmental schemes now.
But the amount that needs to be spent is also large.
The report suggests spending €7 billion on upgrading Ireland’s electricity grid, an extra €4 billion on encouraging the uptake of electric cars, and €1 billion on forestry and rewetting peatlands.
Doing so would, the report says, drastically cut Ireland’s pollution levels.